To Kill Violent Offenders Before They Can Be a Threat Once Again
October 2005
A Primer: Three Strikes - The Impact Afterward More Than a Decade
Contents
Introduction
Background
The Legal Development of California'south Three Strikes Law
Bear upon of Iii Strikes on the Criminal Justice System
The Impact of Three Strikes on Public Safety
Determination-The Future of Three Strikes
Introduction
In 1994, California legislators and voters approved a major modify in the state's criminal sentencing law, (commonly known as 3 Strikes and Yous're Out). The police force was enacted as Chapter 12, Statutes of 1994 (AB 971, Jones) by the Legislature and past the electorate in Suggestion 184. Every bit its name suggests, the constabulary requires, amongst other things, a minimum judgement of 25 years to life for 3-time repeat offenders with multiple prior serious or violent felony convictions. The Legislature and voters passed the Three Strikes law after several high profile murders committed past ex-felons raised business that violent offenders were being released from prison only to commit new, ofttimes serious and vehement, crimes in the customs.
In this piece, we summarize fundamental provisions of Three Strikes and You lot're Out; discuss the development of the constabulary in the courts; judge the impact of the law on state and local criminal justice systems; and evaluate to what extent the law achieved its original goals. Our findings are based on analysis of available information, review of the literature on Iii Strikes, and discussions with state and local criminal justice officials.
Background
The Rationale for 3 Strikes. Repeat offenders are possibly the almost difficult of criminal offenders for state and local criminal justice systems to manage. These offenders are considered unresponsive to incarceration every bit a means of behavior modification, and undeterred past the prospect of serving time in prison house. For this reason, longer sentences for this grouping of offenders take a potent appeal to policy makers and the public. Supporters of Proposition 184 argued that imposing lengthy sentences on repeat offenders would reduce crime in two ways. First, extended sentences, also referred to every bit sentence enhancements, would remove repeat felons from society for longer periods of time, thereby restricting their ability to commit additional crimes. Second, the threat of such long sentences would discourage some offenders from committing new crimes.
Key Features of 3 Strikes. The Three Strikes law imposed longer prison sentences for certain repeat offenders, too equally instituted other changes. About significantly, it required that a person who is convicted of a felony and who has been previously convicted of one or more tearing or serious felonies receive a sentence enhancement. (Figure i defines several of import terms in criminal sentencing law.) The major changes fabricated by the Three Strikes police are as follows:
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Second Strike Offense. If a person has ane previous serious or violent felony confidence, the sentence for any new felony conviction (not merely a serious or violent felony) is twice the term otherwise required under law for the new conviction. Offenders sentenced by the courts under this provision are oftentimes referred to as "second strikers."
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Third Strike Criminal offense. If a person has two or more than previous serious or violent felony convictions, the sentence for whatever new felony confidence (not just a serious or trigger-happy felony) is life imprisonment with the minimum term existence 25 years. Offenders convicted nether this provision are frequently referred to equally "third strikers."
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Consecutive Sentencing. The statute requires consecutive, rather than concurrent, sentencing for multiple offenses committed by strikers. For example, an offender convicted of two third strike offenses would receive a minimum term of fifty years (ii 25-yr terms added together) to life.
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Unlimited Aggregate Term. There is no limit to the number of felonies that can be included in the consecutive sentence.
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Fourth dimension Since Prior Confidence Not Considered. The length of fourth dimension between the prior and new felony conviction does not affect the imposition of the new sentence, so serious and violent felony offenses committed many years before a new crime can be counted as prior strikes.
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Probation, Break, or Diversion Prohibited. Probation may non be granted for the new felony, nor may imposition of the judgement be suspended for any prior criminal offense. The defendant must be committed to land prison and is non eligible for diversion.
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Prosecutorial Discretion. Prosecutors can motion to dismiss, or "strike," prior felonies from consideration during sentencing in the "furtherance of justice."
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Express "Good Fourth dimension" Credits. Strikers cannot reduce the time they spend in prison house by more than one-fifth (rather than the standard of half) by earning credits from piece of work or education activities.
| Figure 1 Important Terms in Criminal Sentencing |
| Felony. There are iii kinds of crimes: infractions, misdemeanors, and |
| Violent Criminal offense. State law (Penal Code [P.C.] 667.5) defines some felonies every bit "fierce." Examples of such felonies include murder, robbery, and rape and other sexual practice offenses. |
| Serious Offense. State law (P.C. 1192.seven) defines some felonies as "serious." Serious felonies include the same offenses equally vehement felonies, just likewise include other offenses such as break-in of a residence and assault with intent to |
| Sentence Enhancement. This is additional time added to a criminal |
As a consequence of these provisions, the Three Strikes law significantly increases the length of time some echo offenders spend in state prison. For case, consider a defendant who has prior convictions for assault on a police officer and burglary of a residence, both considered serious or violent crimes. Subsequently, he is bedevilled for receiving stolen property, a nonserious and nonviolent felony. Before the enactment of Three Strikes, he would typically have served 2 years for the belongings crime. Nether the Three Strikes law, he would be sentenced to life in prison. Effigy 2 illustrates how sentencing under the 3 Strikes police force differs from the prior law under different scenarios of current and prior offenses.
| Figure 2 Illustrations of Prison Sentencing Under Three Strikes | ||||||
| Crimes Committed | Fourth dimension to Serve in Prison a | |||||
| Scenarios | New Criminal offense | Prior Offense b | Prior Law | Current Constabulary | ||
| No Prior Offense | ||||||
| Any felony with: | ||||||
| No prior felony | Burglary of | None | 2 years | Same | ||
| Second Strike Criminal offense | ||||||
| Any felony with: | ||||||
| One prior | Burglary of | 1 prior break-in of residence | 4.5 years | 10.four years | ||
| Third Strike Offense | ||||||
| Nonviolent/ | ||||||
| 2 prior | Receiving stolen belongings | One prior attack on a peace | 2 years | 25 years to life | ||
| Serious/trigger-happy felony with: | ||||||
| Ii prior | Robbery | 1 prior burglary of a residence, and one prior robbery | vii years | 25 years to life | ||
| a Assumes the offender (i) receives typical prison house sentence for the new law-breaking, (2) receives judgement enhancements for prior offenses, and (three) earns maximum credits from participation in work/pedagogy programs. | ||||||
| b Assumes prior offense resulted in a prison house sentence. | ||||||
The Legal Development Of California's Three Strikes Police
Since the enactment of the Three Strikes law in 1994, there have been a number of legal challenges to its provision, summarized in the text box below. The about pregnant of these challenges concerned the constitutionality of the mensurate. Specifically, the Iii Strikes law made it possible for a repeat offender to receive a prison house judgement of 25 years to life for a nonserious or irenic felony (for example, petty theft with a prior), thereby raising legal questions about the federal Constitution's 8th Amendment protection against fell and unusual penalty. Related legal challenges also take argued that Three Strikes violates the "proportionality rule" in sentencing (the idea that "the time should fit the law-breaking") because a relatively minor crime committed by a echo offender could result in a much harsher penalization than a fierce crime committed by a get-go-time offender. In addition, the law appeared to grant prosecutorial, or executive, discretion while limiting judicial discretion in sentencing, which raised ramble questions virtually separation of powers. Every bit a result of these and other concerns, there have been a number of challenges to various aspects of the law.
While some court rulings have express the law, other rulings have upheld most provisions of the law. Every bit regards the issue of brutal and unusual punishment, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in Ewing v. California that it is constitutional to sentence a repeat offender to an indeterminate life sentence for the commission of a nonserious or nonviolent felony. In People 5. Superior Court (Romero), the country Supreme Court ruled that Three Strikes did not eliminate judicial discretion to dismiss prior serious or violent felony convictions.
Numerous other important issues relating to the implementation of the police have been resolved through the courts. For example, the courts have adamant that "wobblers" (crimes that can exist considered either a misdemeanor or a felony) can trigger 2d and 3rd strike enhancements, juvenile convictions can count as strike offenses, and multiple strikes can be charged from a single criminal offense or incident.
Implications. The major legal issues raised by challengers to the police accept at present been addressed past the courts, and the legal outcomes ultimately take had meaning implications affecting the implementation of the constabulary. In detail, the decisions permitting the application of the Three Strikes law to nonserious, nonviolent offenses has allowed many offenders to be sentenced to prison house for extended periods, costing the land hundreds of millions of dollars. In improver, the court's decision that judges take discretion to dismiss prior strikes contributes to a pattern of variation in the awarding of Iii Strikes penalties across counties. These impacts are discussed in more than particular below.
Three Strikes Legal Milestones
Ewing v. California- Three Strikes Law Not Cruel and Unusual Punishment.
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The Ewing case involved a repeat offender sentenced to prison house for 25 years to life nether the Three Strikes law for stealing golf clubs from a Los Angeles land club, a nonserious, nonviolent offense.
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Ewing argued that the sentence violated the Eighth Amendment's prohibition against cruel and unusual penalty. In the past, the courtroom had interpreted the Eighth Amendment to prohibit the imposition of a judgement that is grossly disproportionate to the severity of the crime.
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In 2003, the U.S. Supreme Court, in a 5-4 conclusion, upheld the constitutionality of California's Three Strikes law. The court argued, "Ewing's sentence is justified by the State's public safety interest in incapacitating and deterring recidivist felons�." and that "selecting sentencing rationales is by and large a policy choice to be made by state legislatures, not federal courts."
People v. Superior Court (Romero)- Judges Can Strike Prior Convictions.
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The outcome hither was whether a guess, under the authorization granted by Penal Lawmaking Section 1385 to dismiss an action in furtherance of justice, may strike prior felony convictions on his/her ain motion in Three Strikes cases.
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On June twenty, 1996, the land Supreme Court ruled that the court has the discretion to dismiss prior serious or violent felony convictions nether the Three Strikes law.
People v. Fuhrman- Multiple Strikes From Single Incident.
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In the Fuhrman case, the trial court sentenced Fuhrman to a total prison term of 58 years to life under the Three Strikes law. The defendant appealed claiming that the trial court should accept dismissed one of the prior convictions since both convictions arose from a unmarried court proceeding.
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In 1997, the state Supreme Court upheld the lower court decision. The court alleged that "because the statutory language was clear and unambiguous, and because the phrase brought and tried separately was not expressly mentioned, information technology was not necessary for the two prior offenses to result from split incidents."
Impact of Three Strikes on The Criminal Justice System
In this section, nosotros discuss the touch of the Three Strikes police on the state'southward prison system, as well as the courts and local jails.
State Corrections
Touch on on the Prison Population. Since its implementation, the 3 Strikes law has had a major outcome on the make-up of the prison population. Since 1994, the courts have sent over fourscore,000 second strikers and 7,500 third strikers to state prison. (More than half of these second strikers accept served their fourth dimension and have been released.) As of December 31, 2004, there were well-nigh 43,000 inmates serving time in prison house under the Three Strikes police, making up about 26 per centum of the total prison house population. Of the striker population, more 35,000 are second strikers, and nigh seven,500 are third strikers. Figure 3 shows the growth of the second and 3rd striker inmate population from 1994 through 2004. As the figure shows, the striker population in prison grew apace in the first years of the law. However, the rate of growth has slowed significantly in recent years every bit many 2nd strikers complete their sentence and are paroled.
In 1994, analysts predicted that Three Strikes would result in over 100,000 additional inmates in country prison by 2003. Clearly, that rate of growth has non occurred. A number of factors have probably contributed to a lower prison population, including the use of discretion by judges and commune attorneys to dismiss prior strikes in some cases. While courts do not rail how ofttimes such discretion is used, some surveys of district attorneys conducted by Jennifer Walsh of California State University, Los Angeles, for case, suggest that prior strikes might be dismissed in 25 percent to 45 per centum of third strike cases, resulting in shorter sentences for those offenders.
Roughly Ane-Third of Strikers Convicted for Crimes Confronting Persons. The nearly common offenses for which strikers are currently serving fourth dimension in prison include robbery, burglary, assault, and possession of drugs. Approximately 37 percent of strikers were convicted for crimes confronting persons, such every bit robbery and assault. Figure iv shows the striker population by criminal offense category with the most common offenses listed.
| Figure 4 Striker Population by Criminal offense Category | ||||
| (December 2004) | ||||
| Crime | Third | Second | Total | |
| Number | Per centum | |||
| Crimes Against Persons | 3,277 | 12,728 | 16,005 | 37% |
| Robbery | 1,706 | 4,886 | 6,592 | xv |
| Assault With a Mortiferous Weapon | 426 | ii,443 | 2,869 | 7 |
| Assault/Battery | 391 | ii,470 | 2,861 | 7 |
| Property Crimes | 2,344 | 10,391 | 12,735 | 30% |
| 1st Caste Burglary | 880 | 2,609 | three,489 | 8 |
| 2nd Degree Burglary | 466 | one,967 | ii,433 | vi |
| Petty Theft With a Prior | 356 | 2,007 | ii,363 | vi |
| Drug Crimes | 1,282 | 8,654 | 9,936 | 23% |
| Possession of a Controlled Substance | 677 | 4,453 | v,130 | 12 |
| Possession of Controlled | 302 | two,282 | 2,584 | half-dozen |
| Auction of Controlled Substance | 197 | 1,195 | one,392 | 3 |
| Other Crimes a | 671 | 3,463 | iv,134 | ten% |
| Possession of a Weapon | 412 | one,865 | two,277 | 5 |
| Totals | 7,574 | 35,236 | 42,810 | 100% |
| a For example, arson and driving under the influence. | ||||
Little More than Than One-half of Strikers Are Convicted of Nonserious/Nonviolent Offenses. Based on data provided by the California Section of Corrections and Rehabilitation (CDCR)-formerly the Department of Corrections, 44 percent of all inmate strikers were bedevilled of a serious or violent current offense, while 56 percentage were convicted of nonserious or nonviolent offenses. Information technology is likely that these figures somewhat nether-report the percent of strikers whose current offense activity was really serious or violent. This could occur in some cases because district attorneys choose to prosecute strikers for nonserious, irenic offenses that may be easier to prove in courtroom knowing that the Three Strikes sentence enhancement volition still apply. The extent to which this occurs is unknown. Figure 5 shows the number of striker inmates in prison convicted for serious and violent crimes as compared to the number convicted for nonserious, nonviolent offenses.
| Figure five Less Than One-half of Strikers Are Incarcerated for | ||||||||
| (Dec 2004) | ||||||||
| Electric current Delivery Offense | Total | |||||||
| Serious/Fierce | Nonserious/ | |||||||
| Number | Percent | Number | Pct | Number | Percentage | |||
| Second Strikers | xiv,608 | 41% | 20,627 | 59% | 35,235 | 100% | ||
| Third Strikers | 4,079 | 54 | iii,496 | 46 | 7,575 | 100 | ||
| Totals | 18,687 | 44% | 24,123 | 56% | 42,810 | 100% | ||
While more than one-half of the strikers in prison are there considering their current offenses are nonserious and nonviolent, strikers do take more serious criminal histories, on average, than other state inmates. For case, second and tertiary strikers have been convicted for an average of three prior felony offenses, including an average of two prior serious or violent felonies. By comparing, the rest of the inmate population has an average of one prior felony offense, including 0.2 serious or violent felonies. Figure 6 compares the criminal offence histories of all strikers-as well every bit second and third strikers-and other state inmates.
Even those strikers who are in prison because their electric current offenses were nonserious and nonviolent have lengthier criminal histories than nonstrikers. Second and tertiary strikers whose electric current offenses are nonserious and nonviolent boilerplate four and five prior felony offenses, respectively, compared to one prior felony criminal offence on average for the residuum of the inmate population.
Increased Length of Prison house Stay. Because the police force increases the length of sentences, it has raised the boilerplate length of stay for the prison population. The average time served by all felons earlier their get-go release to parole was 21 months in 1994, prior to the implementation of the Three Strikes law. By 2004, this average had increased by 19 percent to 25 months. In role, this increment has occurred considering second strikers serve longer sentences than the average for all prison inmates. Second strikers released to parole in 2004 served 43 months on average. The additional fourth dimension in prison for second strikers costs the country approximately $sixty,000 per striker.
In addition, inmates serving life sentences for a third strike confidence are in prison for longer than would have been the case in the absence of the Three Strikes constabulary, specially those whose current law-breaking is nonserious or nonviolent. The cost of their boosted fourth dimension in prison because of Three Strikes is difficult to gauge because many of them would have returned to prison house even in the absence of Three Strikes for new offenses or parole violations. In addition, because third strikers are serving indeterminate sentences, it is not articulate when they will be released from prison house. This decision volition exist made by the Lath of Parole Hearings (formerly the Board of Prison house Terms) for each inmate. It is worth noting that no tertiary strikers have been released from prison, and the earliest any are eligible for release to parole is 2019.
Once 3rd strikers become eligible for parole consideration, this volition likely create significant additional workload and require additional resources for the lath. The number of lifer hearings is projected to more than double from about 4,500 held by the Lath of Prison house Terms in 2003.
Inmate Population Aging. The boilerplate historic period of the inmate population has risen from 32 to 36 since 1994. Moreover, the number of inmates fifty years of age and older has increased from about 5,500 to 16,300 between 1994 and 2004. This aging prison population is probable due to two factors. The first and probably more meaning gene is the enactment of sentencing laws (such as the Three Strikes law) to provide longer terms, and in some cases life terms. Such laws, designed to incarcerate offenders for longer periods, result in a larger and older prison population in the long run. Thus, as the third striker population grows and ages-probably at least until 2014-the overall prison house population volition likely abound older, as well. The 2d factor is that the aging of the prison population just reflects the aging of the denizens as a whole. The so-called "baby blast" generation is getting older, and so are the criminals of the baby boom generation.
The aging of the prison house population over the by decade has the potential for meaning fiscal consequences. As inmates age, the cost of housing them increases due to historic period-related affliction and the associated health care costs, also as the security and transportation costs of moving these inmates between prisons and local hospitals. Estimates are that housing and caring for elderly inmates costs betwixt two and three times more than the $35,000 it costs in 2005-06 to incarcerate the average inmate. Therefore, as the striker population continues to grow and age in prison house, the state costs to incarcerate them will besides continue to escalate.
Racial Composition of Strikers. African Americans make upwardly the largest group of second and 3rd strikers (37 percent), followed past Hispanics (33 pct), and whites (26 percent). This racial limerick is similar to that in the full prison population. Withal, African Americans make up 45 percent of the third striker population, which is xv per centum college than in the total prison population. Figure 7 shows the racial limerick of the striker population.
Changes to Parole Supervision. Since about 2000, the CDCR has altered how it supervises parolees who take ii or more than serious or violent felony convictions on their record-those for whom their side by side felony confidence would make them eligible for a third strike judgement. Specifically, the department has adult second striker caseloads where parole agents specialize in supervising these parolees on reduced caseloads. The purpose of creating these specialized caseloads, according to the department, is to permit parole agents to more closely monitor these parolees and provide services that could aid in preventing parolees from reoffending and receiving third strike convictions. The department reports that as of March 2005, there were near 12,000 parolees on second striker caseloads. The additional cost to supervise these parolees in specialized caseloads is approximately $twenty 1000000 annually.
What Has Iii Strikes Cost the State? Analyses in 1994 suggested that the Three Strikes constabulary would issue in boosted state prison operations costs of a few billion dollars annually by 2003, increasing to $6 billion dollars annually by 2026 equally the total touch of the constabulary was realized. At that place would also be one-time prison house structure costs totaling $twenty billion by 2026 necessary to house strikers in prison house.
It now appears that these estimates were high. The budget for CDCR has increased by about $iii billion since 1994-95, but much of this growth tin be attributed to costs unrelated to Three Strikes, such as increased medical costs and higher numbers of parole violators returned to prison house. In fact, the current toll of housing strikers is approximately $one.five billion annually. However, many of these offenders would be in prison for their electric current or a subsequent law-breaking even in the absenteeism of Three Strikes. Taking this into consideration, we approximate that the additional operating costs resulting from the Three Strikes law is almost 1 one-half billion dollars annually. The primary reasons for the difference between early estimates and the financial impact that has actually occurred are (1) the utilise of judicial discretion to dismiss prior strikes, and (2) variation among counties in how oft they prosecute offenders under the Three Strikes law. Both of these factors-discussed in more than detail later in this piece-have reduced the number of inmates who have been sentenced under Iii Strikes compared to what would have occurred if such judicial and prosecutorial discretion were not allowed.
As regards prison structure costs, the state has not built any new prisons specifically for striker inmates. The department has activated seven new prisons (and deactivated another) to accommodate the total growth in the prison house population since 1994. The total capital outlay costs for these vii prisons was $1.viii billion. Withal, it is difficult to identify the portion of these costs that is attributable to Three Strikes. Only a portion of the total growth in the inmate population is attributable to Three Strikes. Likewise, all of these prison construction projects, with the exception of one (Kern Valley State Prison), were planned fifty-fifty before the passage of Three Strikes. In addition, the department utilizes more than double-celling, besides as double- and triple-bunking in dorms, thereby reducing the amount of construction that might otherwise have occurred.
In addition to direct prison costs, the Three Strikes law may have also had indirect financial impacts on state and local governments. For case, some offenders who are incarcerated for longer periods under Three Strikes are unable to commit additional crimes that issue in victim-related government costs (for example, wellness care costs). Alternatively, there could be foregone tax revenue to the extent that some offenders incarcerated under Three Strikes might have paid some taxes otherwise. The extent and magnitude of these impacts is unknown.
Courts
Application of the Law Varies by County. Based on discussions with representatives of the courts and commune attorneys offices, we conclude that local county justice systems have developed various strategies for handling their Iii Strikes caseloads, based on different policy priorities and fiscal constraints. Thus, the manner in which the police force is implemented at the local level by prosecutors and judges varies across counties. In some counties, for example, prosecutors seek Three Strikes enhancements only in certain cases, such every bit for certain types of crimes that are item problems in their county or where the electric current criminal offence is serious or violent. In other counties, prosecutors seek Three Strikes enhancements in most eligible cases. Similarly, judges vary in how often they dismiss prior strikes, based on discretion afforded to them under the Romero decision. In add-on, variation in the application of Three Strikes non just exists across counties, merely can also occur within counties. In item, prosecution practices change over time equally counties experience turnover of district attorneys and judges and every bit they develop new methods for handling Iii Strikes cases.
One manner to gauge the extent to which prosecutorial and judicial discretion is used in the application of the Iii Strikes law is to examine the rate at which strikers are sent to prison from various counties. Figure eight shows, for the 15 largest California counties, the number of strikers in prison per 100,000 felony arrests for each county. (These counties account for about 90 percent of the state's striker population.) In full, this rate gives a mensurate of the likelihood of incarceration in each canton under Three Strikes, regardless of county size or crime rate. As the data in Effigy viii show, at that place is considerable variation among counties in the likelihood that an offender who is arrested would exist prosecuted and bedevilled under the 3 Strikes law. For instance, Kern Canton with 1,518 strikers per 100,000 developed felony arrests is over 13 times more than likely to transport an arrestee to state prison house with a strike enhancement than San Francisco County (113 strikers per 100,000 adult felony arrests).
It is of import to annotation that there may also be differences in crime patterns, too every bit law enforcement strategies and priorities, that could contribute to the variation in the rate of Third Strikes sentences among counties. For example, the percentage of crimes that are serious or violent can vary from canton to county, thereby resulting in differences in the per centum of offenders who are eligible for prosecution under the Three Strikes police.
| Figure 8 Rate of Striker Commitments Vary by County | ||||
| (Dec 2004) | ||||
| County | Strikers | Rate of Strikers in Prison (Per 100,000 Adult | ||
| Tertiary | Second | Total | ||
| Kern | 390 | 1,263 | 1,653 | one,518 |
| San Diego | 613 | iii,527 | 4,140 | 1,357 |
| Los Angeles | 2,958 | 14,043 | 17,001 | 1,327 |
| Riverside | 333 | ane,809 | ii,142 | ane,205 |
| Santa Clara | 431 | 1,353 | one,784 | i,205 |
| Sacramento | 457 | one,574 | 2,031 | 1,003 |
| San Joaquin | 104 | 731 | 835 | 917 |
| San Mateo | 81 | 366 | 447 | 871 |
| Fresno | 171 | 907 | 1,078 | 865 |
| Orange | 366 | i,796 | 2,162 | 849 |
| San Bernardino | 504 | one,924 | 2,428 | 824 |
| Ventura | 67 | 475 | 542 | 803 |
| Contra Costa | 79 | 323 | 402 | 355 |
| Alameda | 116 | 507 | 623 | 323 |
| San Francisco | 35 | 196 | 231 | 113 |
More Cases Going to Trial. The rate of felony cases decided past jury trial increased almost 10 percent afterward the enactment of Three Strikes. While courts do not rails striker cases, it seems likely-based on our discussions with district attorneys, judges, and others-that the Three Strikes police force has been one of the chief causes for this increase in the rate of cases going to trial. According to court professionals, many defendants practice not plea bargain their striker cases. This is because even a defendant who agrees to a plea is notwithstanding likely to receive a lengthy sentence. For this reason, many choose to become to court in the hopes of avoiding a conviction altogether. This trend towards cases existence resolved more oft by trials and less by plea bargains requires greater court resources for criminal cases.
County Jails
More Pretrial Inmates. More criminal cases going to trial under the Three Strikes law has resulted in a similar increase in the number of inmates held in local jails. Betwixt 1993 and 2004, the number of jail beds filled with pretrial inmates has increased by about 16,000 beds. This reflects an increase of near 14 percentage in the percent of jail beds filled by pretrial inmates. Some unknown amount of this increase is likely due to Iii Strikes. In detail, these are inmates who, in the absence of Three Strikes, would have had their cases resolved relatively quickly by plea bargain and would already take been transferred to state prison.
According to a 2004 study by the Corrections Standards Authorisation (CSA), formerly the Board of Corrections, the increase in the proportion of pretrial inmates has significant implications for operating costs of jails because these inmates are oft assigned to higher levels of security and require more resources equally they go through the legal process. The amount of boosted costs for county jails to hold pretrial inmates is unknown.
It should exist noted that, even every bit more pretrial inmates are in jail, the number of inmates released from jails early due to overcrowding actually declined by 45 percent between 1995 and 2004, based on a report by the CSA. This finding suggests that jails take been able to accommodate the boosted workload from Three Strikes.
Summary of Impact of 3 Strikes on Criminal Justice Organisation. Three Strikes has increased the sentence length of a significant proportion of the inmate population, resulting in a growing and aging prison house population. The fiscal touch on of the measure has been significant at both the land and local level. We estimate that the additional state operational costs resulting from Three Strikes are about one half billion dollars annually, and the state will likely face up significantly higher hereafter costs resulting from this measure out as the striker population continues to abound and age. In improver, local courts and jails face unknown, merely meaning increased costs for prosecuting and incarcerating offenders tried nether the Three Strikes law.
The Impact of Three Strikes On Public Safety
Projected Public Condom Bear on. The primary justification given by supporters for the Three Strikes law was that it would reduce offense in California in ii ways. First, the law would remove echo offenders from communities for longer periods of time, eliminating the possibility that they could commit new crimes during that period-referred to as an "incapacitation" effect. Second, some advocates of Three Strikes suggested that the severe penalty options associated with the law would deter some potential offenders, thereby preventing some crime that might otherwise occur-a deterrent effect.
Crime Rates Since 1994. The overall crime rate in California, as measured by the Department of Justice'due south California Crime Index, began declining before the passage of the Three Strikes law. In fact, the overall law-breaking charge per unit declined by 10 pct between 1991 and 1994. The crime charge per unit continued to decline afterwards Three Strikes, falling by 43 percent statewide between 1994 and 1999, though it has risen past about eleven pct since 1999. Similarly, the fierce crime charge per unit declined by 8 pct between 1991 and 1994 and then fell an boosted 43 per centum betwixt 1994 and 2003. Information technology is of import to note that these reductions appear to exist part of a national tendency of falling crime rates. National crime rates-every bit reported past the Federal Agency of Investigation's Uniform Crime Report-declined 31 percentage between 1991 and 2003, with violent criminal offence declining 37 percent over that period. Researchers take identified a diversity of factors that probably contributed to these reductions in national crime rates during much of the 1990s including a strong economic system, more than effective police force enforcement practices, demographic changes, and a decline in handgun use. The overall crime tendency for California since 1952 is seen in Figure 9.
Estimated Public Rubber Touch of Three Strikes. The principle difficulty in accurately evaluating the public condom impact of 3 Strikes is distinguishing between the impact associated solely with the initiative and changes that would have occurred in the offense charge per unit in the absence of Three Strikes. In other words, if Three Strikes had not been enacted, would criminal offence rates have continued to fall anyway? Or, did 3 Strikes accelerate the step or lengthen the duration of these declining crime rates?
Our survey of the literature, as well as discussions with leading criminologists, found that there is little consensus amongst researchers nigh the touch on of Three Strikes on public safety, even subsequently more than ten years of application. Some early reports attributed much of the driblet in crime in the mid-1990s to the Three Strikes law. For example, reports issued by the Chaser General in 1998 and the Secretarial assistant of Land in 1999 asserted that the dramatic refuse in California law-breaking rates following the implementation of Three Strikes conspicuously demonstrated its positive touch on on public condom. The Attorney General'southward report also noted that though criminal offense rates were dropping nationwide, California'southward crime rates dropped even more than those of other states after 1994.
Other analyses, including research by the RAND Constitute, take cast some doubtfulness on these early reports, besides as the subsequent impact of Three Strikes on public safety. A variety of reports by academic researchers suggest that the mensurate has likely had a modest impact on the state'south criminal offence charge per unit, which is not well-nigh equally big as early projections estimated. For example, a report past James Austin and colleagues at George Washington University analyzed the departure in enforcement of the Iii Strikes law across counties. If Iii Strikes works every bit intended, ane would expect that those counties that used the law more often would experience significantly greater reductions in offense than those that did not utilize it as often. However, the canton comparing study did non find significantly different outcomes across unlike counties, suggesting that the Three Strikes law was not the primary crusade of the significant drop in criminal offence later 1994.
Figure ten compares the law-breaking rates for eight California counties in 1994 and 2003. These counties represent the four counties that take the highest delivery rate of second and 3rd strikers also equally the four counties with the lowest commitment rate (see Figure eight earlier in this report). Figure ten shows that all viii counties experienced reductions in criminal offense rates as measured by the Department of Justice's California Crime Index. As well, the reduction in the offense charge per unit was similar for the 2 groups. Specifically, the four large counties most likely to ship strikers to prison in the last 10 years (Kern, Los Angeles, San Diego, and Riverside) have seen criminal offense rates driblet by an average of 37 percent from 1994 through 2003. The iv large counties to the lowest degree likely to ship strikers to prison (Ventura, Contra Costa, Alameda, and San Francisco) saw crime rates drop past an average of 33 per centum over the same period.
In improver, violent crime rates declined by near the same amount in the counties that were less likely to transport strikers to prison as the comparison counties. The violent crime charge per unit in those counties least likely to send strikers to prison declined past an average of 45 percent, while the violent law-breaking rate in the counties most likely to send strikers to prison declined by an average of 44 percent. Figure eleven shows the down modify in violent crime rates in these eight large counties.
Unfortunately, there remains no clear consensus almost the public safety impact of the Iii Strikes measure. In particular, data limitations (such every bit the number of offenders eligible for prosecution under Three Strikes) and the inherent difficulty of estimating the number of crimes prevented make it difficult to conclusively evaluate the law'southward impact on criminal offense and condom. For now it remains an open question every bit to how much safer California's citizens are as a result of Iii Strikes.
Why Might Three Strikes Accept Had Less of a Public Safety Impact than Originally Projected? There accept been several explanations given by researchers for why 3 Strikes may non have had as large a public condom impact as originally predicted. First, the differences in the application of the Three Strikes law by counties mitigates the total affect of Three Strikes by reducing the number of offenders who are sentenced to prison house for longer periods. Second, if the state's crime rate was failing independently of Three Strikes due to other criminal justice or societal factors, this trend might accept resulted in fewer Three Strikes eligible cases compared to earlier projections. Third, some inquiry by Frank Zimring of the University of California, Berkley and colleagues suggests that strikers as a group commit a relatively minor proportion-well-nigh 11 percentage-of the state'southward full number of felonies. Therefore, the incarceration of these offenders would non have a large impact on the overall crime rate. Fourth, some criminal justice research suggests that-for a diverseness of reasons-the threat of harsh sentences does not have a significant deterrent consequence on criminal activity.
Conclusion-The Hereafter of Three Strikes
In November 2004, California voters considered Proffer 66, which aimed to significantly revise the Three Strikes law. In rejecting Proposition 66, voters seemed to reaffirm their support for the measure. Though the proposition failed to pass, the level of back up for it (47 percent) does propose some sentiment amongst California citizens to reconsider aspects of the law, including the provision of sentences of 25 years to life for offenders whose most contempo law-breaking is nonserious and nonviolent. The Legislature has also considered similar legislation in recent years. Should the Legislature or voters deed to revise the Three Strikes police force, the impacts could exist significant depending on the nature of the changes made. For example, had Proposition 66 passed, it likely would have resulted in reduced future prison incarceration costs of several hundreds of millions of dollars annually.
While information technology now appears likely that the Three Strikes law will not be revised, at least for the nearly futurity, it remains possible that the local implementation of the current police force could modify over time. For example, Three Strikes was enacted and implemented at a fourth dimension of failing offense rates. This may in function explain why the number of individuals prosecuted under the law is not as high as originally predictable. However, should the crime rate climb or public concerns about condom grow, the police could be applied more oftentimes at the local level, resulting in increased land corrections and local criminal justice costs.
As long as the Three Strikes law is applied generally as it has been since its enactment in 1994, country and local criminal justice systems volition continue to be affected in important ways. In particular, the prison inmate population will continue to abound equally more 2d and third strikers are sent to prison. The number of third strikers will increase until at least 2019 when the kickoff third strikers will be eligible for parole hearings. The connected growth, besides every bit aging, of the striker population is likely to accept significant implications for the prison arrangement for the foreseeable future, including increased operating and capital outlay costs.
This study was prepared by Brian Brown and Greg Jolivette. The Legislative Analyst'southward Office (LAO) is a nonpartisan office which provides fiscal and policy information and advice to the Legislature. To asking publications telephone call (916) 445-4656. This report and others, every bit well as an E-mail service subscription service, are bachelor on the LAO's Internet site at www.lao.ca.gov. The LAO is located at 925 Fifty Street, Suite yard, Sacramento, CA 95814.
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Source: https://lao.ca.gov/2005/3_strikes/3_strikes_102005.htm
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